“This book makes an important contribution to the
development of professional wargaming practise”
Dr Peter Perla
with the foreword by Dr Peter Perla.
Confrontation
Analysis, also called dilemma analysis or drama theory, was originally devised
by Professor Nigel Howard in 1997 as a way of modelling crises. Although used
by UK General Rupert Smith in his 2006 book The
Utility of Force, the method fell into obscurity. After 10 years work in
the defence sector, the method has been developed into a tool to model and help
resolve international confrontations.
This handbook
aims to document the method and equip the reader to apply Confrontation
Analysis as an operational analysis technique to structure, understand and
think through multi-party interactions such as negotiations. It presents
examples how to apply the method, with guidance on the steps to take. It is
full of advice based on years of experience of the authors applying the method
in the professional arena. All the case studies in this book have been used for
real training and research.
The chapters
include examples ranging from the Iranian nuclear weapons crises 2010-15, to
the Euro crisis of 2011. Each example is explained in detail to help the reader
apply the method for themselves.
Two variants of the method are included; the first uses the
example of the Libyan Civil War (2011) to show how to quantifies the dilemmas
to help users make judgements. The second uses user generated cards to map out
the conflict space. The latter is illustrated by a wargame based on near future
cyber conflict around the South China Sea.
This handbook is published by the History of Wargaming
Project as part of its ongoing work to document current practise in wargaming.
So this is focused on classical game theory?
ReplyDeleteThis is a development from game theory. In game theory, the options are defined at the start of the analysis, then the outcomes for each side are mapped against every choice. In Confrontation Analysis, the players introduce more options dynamically during the analysis (or game) to try and change the outcomes. e.g. classic game theory for a crisis in North Korea would map outcomes based on the range of options available. The Confrontation Analysis version would expect the various sides to work hard and introduce new options, not just the ones available at start. Professor Nigel Howard and General Rupert Smith placed great credence on this method.
DeleteHope this brief explanation helps a bit.