Having gamed the full range of potential attacks on
Australia, my key conclusion is: apparently no-one cares if a 3rd party
supported by another 3rd party occupies Australia. I will, of course, assume
that the Australians care, and New Zealand cares (as it cannot survive long
term without Australian support).
Australia is seen as of limited interest to most of the
world. I will give an example, in 1967 their Prime Minister Harold Holt
disappeared without a trace. No-one outside Australia apparently even noticed.
It has not improved since. A quick look at the BBC news pages shows the
Australian coverage is usually at a fairly trivial level.
On July 13th 2019 the respected Australian Strategic Policy
Institute said “A new cold war will force changes in Australian behaviour” and
“A new cold war with China is playing out in all but name. Australia will be at
the front line…” This is serious stuff, but no-one outside Australia has picked
up on the story. When I looked, Google found no reference to this story in English
in Europe. This is clearly a political failure of Australia’s political
leadership to connect with the Europe and North America.
Australia has strategic importance; in a general war as a
forward unsinkable base; in small wars or counterinsurgencies the Australians
are very good allies in that sort of thing. However, I assume Australia is
largely ignored for geographical reasons - it's so far down that bottom right
hand corner on a standard world map used in the UK- and culturally I speculate
that its main exports aren't seen as being as serious or impactful as those
from the US, UK, or Europe. Of course these factors have nothing to do with its
actual relevance, especially considering the nature of the political or cyber
or economic "terrain" in a new Cold War will be completely separate
from any physical considerations.
So, my conclusions from my game-based analysis are nothing
to do with planes, tanks, subs, cyber or trade. The key strategic problem of
Australis faces is engaging the Western World to support Australia in this new
cold war. If it fails to do this, it is game over.
