I have been wargaming the Ukraine War since it began. To be
clear this was for professional reasons, not for entertainment.
I believe, as of November 2022, the Russian army in the
Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Whether an army routs after it reaches its
breakpoint in wargaming terms is a matter of chance, however, my prediction is
the Russian army will rout by the end of the winter.
I have gamed the first start part of the war in 2015 and the
cyber dimension many times, but in January 2022, I designed an operational
level game set at brigade level to model the forthcoming Russian invasion.
The key features of the wargame were:
- 2 day turns
- Ukraine brigades largely had a combat strength of
4
- The Russian equivalents rolled a six sided
combat strength to determine their initial combat strength (their tank units
had a plus on the dice roll). The dice roll reflected my understanding about
the wild variability in the combat effectiveness of their units. (We now know
some of the initial wave of Russian forces included follow on forces, such as
military police, rather than just front line combat units).
-
Russian artillery was included in their units
- Ukraine had separate artillery units that could
be switched from combat to combat to reflect their flexibility.
- In combat each side rolled their combat strength
in dice. 5 or 6 caused a casualty, 6 if the enemy was dug in e.g. urban area,
constricted terrain etc.
-
Rates of advance were based on Depuy’s work
(work was quoted by the UK staff college).
- Russia could supply less of its forces, the
further it moved from its supporting railways.
-
Separatist infantry would not fight outside
their home territory
-
Russian precision guided missiles (PGMs) were
not that effective
- Russian airpower made an impact until losses forced
the Russians to reduce air attacks in order to keep their airforce ‘in being’.
Soviet era air defence was effective at shooting down Soviet era aircraft.
My pre-war games predicted the actual outcome of the Russian
advance grinding to a halt. Ukraine was just too large, with too large an army,
with too few axis of advance. Russian logistics meant their axis of advance
were rapidly reduced to just a few lines of assault along major roads. Russian airpower
and PGMs started by hitting strategic targets, then was reallocated to tactical
targets as the advance slowed down.
Since the initial games, I have continued to update the game
as it moved into the static phase, then the Ukraine counter attack. I changed
the game turns to represent 3 days, then a week, as both sides moved towards exhaustion.
I play out the next 4 weeks, then review my model against the actual war. Logistics
is a major part of the game, with each side getting a limited number of supply
points per turn. Each supply point allows a unit to attack or defend at full
strength.
Neither side has shown operational brilliance; the war is
all about amassing sufficient supplies in order to launch an attack, as well as
causing attrition on the other side with indirect fire.
My game included a Ukraine advance on the east front, until
it ran out of supplies, followed by an advance on Kherson.
My wargame has also found that Russia no longer has the PGMs
or airpower to cripple Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure. The Ukraine
air defence works, the Russia does not work very well, the latter has exhausted
most of its munition stock. Ukraine infrastructure is based on the Cold War and
was designed to withstand NATO attack.
My model suggests both sides are near their breakpoint as
they approach 50% losses, however Ukraine has a higher breakpoint that Russia.
I based this rule on the fact that Ukraine has maintained a policy of individual
troop rotation, for example giving leave for soldiers to attend weddings and
funerals, as well as rotating units out of the front line. Ukraine is also
defending its home territory.
There are important questions that will probably be only
answered with post war analysis, such as how are the Russian
casualties distributed between units of differing training, morale,
capabilities and equipment? Or is the entire Russian Army riddled with
incompetence due to decades of corruption? Do the Russians have some
units in reserve that actually know how to fight?
Prediction is always hard, especially predictions about the
future. However, my wargame-based analysis says the Russian army is going to
collapse, Ukraine is going to retake most of its lost territory. Of course, I
might be wrong, but is it better to base a prediction on a tried and tested wargame
model or just a well written piece of narrative as appears in our national newspapers?
