tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53804798361192023782024-03-19T03:47:16.333-07:00History of Wargaming ProjectThe Project aims to research and publish key works in the development of professional, hobby and educational use of wargaming. It currently includes work from Donald Featherstone, Fletcher Pratt, Peter Perla, Phil Barker,Fred Jane, Charles Grant, Stuart Asquith and Terry Wise... John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.comBlogger142125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-44773874915154766272024-01-18T11:28:00.000-08:002024-01-18T11:28:10.913-08:00New Book- Wargames from World War II: Examples of Axis and Allied Wargaming Rules and Umpire Guidelines<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD1XOiTAXNbcAS3ADAXPLYjpnTPsqOOG8lL0UjC6i2-4qWc9J-yuJE1h06Ivp4TukJJ6QPW20djSCF_gM7NSy_rABQ2IyKhyphenhyphenLnwbFHAJdHzCm4LPlqU5K7rmTRF2oF9uR0QykqsuCwc_9l3iKhtkOSnxzmoc2sNKaivla7L0tXjB7j_lFFkyWUDqxAQgI0/s763/wargamingww2cover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="763" data-original-width="500" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD1XOiTAXNbcAS3ADAXPLYjpnTPsqOOG8lL0UjC6i2-4qWc9J-yuJE1h06Ivp4TukJJ6QPW20djSCF_gM7NSy_rABQ2IyKhyphenhyphenLnwbFHAJdHzCm4LPlqU5K7rmTRF2oF9uR0QykqsuCwc_9l3iKhtkOSnxzmoc2sNKaivla7L0tXjB7j_lFFkyWUDqxAQgI0/s320/wargamingww2cover.gif" width="210" /></a></div><p></p><p>It has only taken me a decade to complete this book. It gives actual examples of games played during World War II, a war in which wargaming was just seen as another tool for training and operation planning. <br /></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">The games played just before and during World War II
mattered. As a result of those wargames, battles were fought, campaigns were
launched; lives were lost, lives were saved. An overview of such games has been
covered in the literature before. This book is different as it aims to examine
the detail of these wargames by including primary material; extracts from
source documents, wargaming rules and umpiring guides from the pre-war period
until 1945.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Included are detailed guidelines on the German use of
wargaming during the war based on post war analysis by the American military.
This includes outlines of best practise and the value of these games. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Samples of the German map based tactical exercises set at
platoon and company level. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">An example of a British attack on a village. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">British and American umpire manuals with rules for
arbitrating field exercises, sand table and map wargames. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A Royal Navy carrier wargame: Find Fix and Strike (1944).</p>
<p><br /></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-8968596430173208532023-10-18T07:42:00.003-07:002023-10-18T07:42:20.050-07:00New Book- Advanced Matrix Games for Professional Wargaming<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBDCIp5WxPm6e9Jbo1CMzKOGCDpskzfYhuNYmEX0CYln_0tdMhWiFSpwqFB0jumyXP4VyLsejlaMQrION0KpM7m102o8q-FkqdFLLEoy7Tds8-2YKikY_7N3LF4OdwsKowYvszfZcsnyS2GLh9yuaMYOexa-V1X23Y6ZEjzVZ36xG_yUxn7vJynb_lwcvW/s2525/FINAL%20front%20cover%20kindle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2525" data-original-width="1587" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBDCIp5WxPm6e9Jbo1CMzKOGCDpskzfYhuNYmEX0CYln_0tdMhWiFSpwqFB0jumyXP4VyLsejlaMQrION0KpM7m102o8q-FkqdFLLEoy7Tds8-2YKikY_7N3LF4OdwsKowYvszfZcsnyS2GLh9yuaMYOexa-V1X23Y6ZEjzVZ36xG_yUxn7vJynb_lwcvW/s320/FINAL%20front%20cover%20kindle.jpg" width="201" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">The innovation of the method of Matrix Games has taken the Professional Wargaming world by storm. This book aims to bring together some of the best practise since the first book on Matrix Games was published in 201<span lang="en-gb">4</span>. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">This book is divided into three sections.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">The first part includes an updated detailed guide to running matrix games based on several decades experience of running these games professionally.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">The second part of the book includes five new games about conflict, procurement, the High North and protecting Critical national Infrastructure.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">The final part of the book includes the five scenarios about simulating historical conflicts for military education. These games were included in the first book on matrix games Matrix Games for Professional Wargaming that was first published in 2014 (reprinted in 2022).</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Taken as a whole, the book includes the best current practical advice on running games, with ten examples of future, current and historical conflicts.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">A foreword by Peter Perla, author of the classic Art of Wargaming.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">1: Practical Advice on Matrix Games.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">2: Current and Future Crises.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>Ukraine 2022: The Sins of Our Father.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>One China.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>The High North: The Future of the Arctic (and the World)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>Hope and Glory: Protecting</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>Defence Procurement.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">3: Historical Crises.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>The Falklands War (1982)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>Chaoslavia (1993)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>Crisis in Crimea: A Counter Revolution (March 2014)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>The Red Line: Civil War in Syria (August 2013)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb"> <span> </span></span>Lasgah Pol: Afghanistan (2008)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb">This book replaces the previous edition<span> </span><em>Matrix Games for Modern Wargaming</em></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Note: matrix games as noted in this work is a term used to describe the Chris Engle wargaming matrix game methodology and is not connected or related in any way to Matrix Games Limited or their video game products.</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="en-gb">The book is available from Amazon in paperback, hardback and Kindle</span></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-67014412955120617232023-09-15T11:07:00.004-07:002023-09-15T11:07:20.316-07:00Ukraine 2023: Fort Leavenworth’s Tactical Game of the Ukraine War<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Having played the game a number of times with various
audiences, I would say it demonstrated hobby wargamers were routinely better
than military professionals in terms of tactics at the company level battle. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The rules were written at Fort Leavenworth, one of the homes
of the American Army. First written in 2020 for a US v Russian battle in
eastern Europe, the hit probabilities were considerably edited in the light of
watching lots of YouTube videos about the actual Ukraine War in 2022. Russian
units were downgraded considerably in the light of actual war. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The rules were for a 6mm scale Russian coy in a hasty attack
against a standard Ukrainian ad hoc platoon in a hasty defensive position. The
game system is ‘you go, I go’ turn sequence, but with overwatch fire. Roll to
hit, roll to save in cover. The key innovation, apart from using actual combat
data, was if either side moved off its plan, they pause and roll a dice to see
if they can change the plan. If not, they just roll again next turn. This means
good pre-game orders are crucial and sometimes the battle just stops as the
Russians encounter an unexpected obstacle. The Russian advances stops for a
random amount of time as the commanders consult and make a new plan. All very
realistic. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Russian company had 10 BMPs, 4 tanks, a ZSU, a truck
with military police and another with a section of engineers. The Russian
method of organising everything into battalion tactical groups means every sub
formation has a bit of the support troops. NATO trained armies just allocate
support as needed. Although the Russians had practically unlimited fire support,
it had to be all pre-planned like something out of WWI. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The first problem was the professional wargamers largely did
not know what the Russian tactics from the Cold War actually were. They have
focussed on real world COIN for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan, so were a bit
perplexed. The second problem was the professional wargamers largely did not
know how to manage an ad-hoc Ukrainian platoon, so were unclear what to do with
just 2 tanks, 2 BMPs, 1 dismounted saggar, some infantry, a couple of trucks
plus some random obstacles (trees cut down). They had no drones, no mines, no
wire, and artillery support availability was random depending on mobile phone
reception. Hobby wargamers are quite used to operating with whatever toys come
out of the box and <i>improvise</i>. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The result of the battle was the same in every game. The
Russians took lots of casualties, but advanced 5 km over 2 to 3 hours, and the
Ukrainians lost stuff during the fighting withdrawal. Most wargamers are too
aggressive running a fighting retreat; in real war, a fighting retreat consists
of a few ambushes, then a hasty withdrawal to the next position. Keeping the
unit in being is a critical part of the defensive mission.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The actual war has demonstrated that analysts underestimated
the importance of morale. Tank combat is using a crew served weapon system. To
win the battle requires a tank to position itself in harms way, observe, locate
the enemy, prioritise, aim and fire. The longer a tank takes to do this the
more chance it stands of getting a first-round kill, but the downside is the
longer a tank takes to do this, the more chance of the enemy getting the first
shot in. After firing, it takes a few moments after the dust, shock, flash and
smoke to re-aim and fire a 2<sup>nd</sup> and subsequent rounds. Staying put
and firing again increases the chances of obtaining a kill, but firing
increases the chance of the enemy identifying you as an active threat and
sending a missile towards you. Therefore, effective tank combat requires high
morale for the crew to put themselves at risk in order to kill the enemy.
Ukrainians tanks in these rules fire twice as often as Russian tanks, as the
Ukrainians were more willing to take risks to fire effectively.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">I commenced by saying hobby wargamers were better than
military professionals at tactics, but this does not mean one could drop a
hobby wargamer into commanding a troop of tanks in combat. Leadership in war is
not just about tactics, but includes leadership, morale in the face of death,
actually making the tank move and shoot, etc. Tactics are only a part of the
professional warrior’s job description. However, based on the sample of people
who have played my modern wargames over several decades, it suggests that
professional warriors need to spend more time on the tactics of warfighting.
This includes a deep understanding of how the Russians currently fight. Of
course, how you fit that into the new British Army’s social calendar and ethos
is an interesting topic of conversation.</p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-30726593688415997892023-08-17T12:33:00.004-07:002023-08-17T12:33:51.396-07:00Academic Distain for Wargaming <p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Academic disdain for using wargaming as a tool is a classic
example of legacy skills being allowed to override innovation in the academic
world. This attitude also explains the near complete absence of academics from
professional wargaming; one would expect that military historians would be
embedded in professional wargaming, bringing their extensive knowledge to bear.
As I wander around the strange world professional wargaming I do not encounter
many academic historians, especially after Phil Sabin went to South America. <br />
<br />
Stating the obvious, the military and supporting civilian services use wargames
for training, education, force development, and practising war fighting. The
computer industry uses cyber wargames continually to test business continuity.
Education uses games as there is a huge track record of application and value.
Emergency planning uses exercises; these use many of the techniques from
wargaming. Many disciplines use the tools of wargaming and would think anyone
challenging their professional use to be very strange indeed. There are
parallels in other disciplines where new tools have been resisted by academics
for decades.<br />
<br />
I remember GIS (geographical information systems, huge digitised maps linked to
spatially referenced databases). The established geographers and planners were
anti-GIS as they largely did not have the skills to use it. A planning
conference had an academic paper by an established academic guru where the
latter looked at one case study and demonstrated Green Belts (an area of
protected land in the UK) were shrinking rapidly. Along came the PhD student
who used a GIS with the maps of all 14 of England's Green Belts to demonstrate
that as a whole, Green Belts were growing. Obviously, the student was
failed. It took perhaps 5 years for GIS to become mainstream and 10 years for
the planning world to accept Green Belts were not shrinking. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The computer industry of the 1980’s was a complete shambles,
but the tool modelling introduced by the new discipline of systems analysis
revolutionised the delivery of IT. I remember saying at my leaving speech from
the electricity supply industry that there was no point in me trying to
communicate with developers who had not been trained in the new tools. Half of
the existing staff then failed the training courses in systems analysis introduced
after my departure, so left the industry or were redeployed. Some people could
not make the transition and academic consultancy to the IT industry went off a
cliff edge as the academics did not initially embrace systems analysis</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I could give further examples, such as the arrival of UML
modelling in computing, the use of big data to replace tiny case studies, etc.
All of these initially struggled for acceptance in the academic world, despite
mainstream applications of the new technology. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I regularly talk to academic military historians, but I am
often sceptical of the views on anything to do with operational history. They
are proficient at narrating key events of an individual soldier’s life, but not
when it comes to campaigns and battles. When I talk to a serious wargamer I
know they have looked at the military geography, the human terrain, ORBATs,
weapon ranges, time, space, the weather etc. A wargame is a model that
integrates all these elements, subject to abstraction and generalisation.
Unless the academic historian has wargamed the topic, I have no evidence they
have evaluated all these different elements of war in their narrative. In the
computer industry, it would be inconceivable for someone to talk about a new
system without their having used the industry modelling standard tools such as
UML. I am perplexed how military historians are tolerated who do not model war.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Over the last 12 months I have looked at the academic literature
on Operation Sealion (1940, German non-invasion of England) and found gapping
errors in it. The issue is the historians do not seem to have a concept of
operational and tactical warfare. One example will suffice to illustrate this.
A number of academics suggest that all Hitler had to do was bomb the fixed and mobile
radar stations to blind the RAF. This sounds plausible, unless you have an understanding
of the operational level of war. Bombers missed their targets routinely by many
kilometres. Stukas dive-bombers would then be the best option. They actually
stood a 1% of a hit per aircraft. Of course, the Stuka attack pattern makes it
very vulnerable to even a fixed Bren gun sited to defend the radar station. The
nature of the attack, Stukas stacked up in the sky waiting for their turn to
dive, makes them very vulnerable to enemy fighters. A Stuka squadron attack v
radar might stand a 10% of getting a single hit, but would loose perhaps 4
Stukas and more damaged. If the Germans had started an all-out dive-bombing campaign
on a Sunday, by the end of Tuesday, they would have had almost no Stukas left,
and most of the radar stations would still have been working. Serious wargamers
understand the constraints of the operational, but from my experience few
academic historians do. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So why are academics reluctant to embed wargaming in their
curriculum and academic writing? Judging by innovations in other disciplines,
many academics would not be able to make the leap. A lot of the existing
military narratives in the academic literature would be now judged inadequate
when evaluated through the prism of wargaming. University military history
courses that used wargaming would be far more engaging and popular with those
that did not. There would be staffing changes as a result of academia embracing
wargames. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The academic reluctance to use wargaming has been around a
long a time. Paddy Griffith encountered the prejudice of fellow academics
against wargamers whilst he was at Sandhurst (1973-1989). Perhaps Paddy’s
combination of wargames and military history explains why of all the military
history lecturers at Sandhurst from that era, he was the one to influence NATO
operational policy. There are real opportunities for academics who can use
wargaming; research bids, professional wargaming and student recruitment/
engagement. On a personal note, I am quite happy with the current dearth of
academic wargamers; ‘in the valley of the blind, the one-eyed man is king’. </p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-13944297143568130152023-03-29T07:59:00.007-07:002023-03-29T07:59:36.049-07:00New Book: Blockbuster Wargame (1984)- American Army Wargaming Rules for Military Operations in Urbanised Terrain<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFovulVyJ7KPUOlGtXaTr9kYGwQz8nfZsL7w2uXiBa0KMPFbaaLAY2rtvBL2uSSwhmEzDj8MK8QYwN6p2qGbmORswKG-dCqcxhIhvSR80imznhAmKIXWUx_1qAgAOjXYJrMeDs0f7rg3DiI2lvVutSnRk6lNocDlUc0I_UhTWOlm8jzTxY9WU3LWxpbw/s617/blockbustercover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="500" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFovulVyJ7KPUOlGtXaTr9kYGwQz8nfZsL7w2uXiBa0KMPFbaaLAY2rtvBL2uSSwhmEzDj8MK8QYwN6p2qGbmORswKG-dCqcxhIhvSR80imznhAmKIXWUx_1qAgAOjXYJrMeDs0f7rg3DiI2lvVutSnRk6lNocDlUc0I_UhTWOlm8jzTxY9WU3LWxpbw/s320/blockbustercover.gif" width="259" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Developed and played during the Cold War, BLOCKBUSTER, is a
set of professional wargaming rules written by the American Army. Along with
the better known Dunn Kempf wargame rules, they were tools for training
soldiers in the 1980’s in the profession of arms. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">BLOCKBUSTER is a three-dimensional, manual, battle
simulation system designed for the purpose of conducting leader training in
Military Operations on Urbanized Terrain (MOUT). Players employ miniature
vehicles and dismounted units on a scaled terrain board according to the Rules
of Play. The Rules of Play are designed to accurately simulate the capabilities
of vehicles, weapons systems, and personnel. A 6-8 hour BLOCKBUSTER exercise
can represent approximately 15-30 minutes of battle. BLOCKBUSTER trains company-level
leaders from the squad leader and tank commander up to the company team
commander.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The rules are published by the History of Wargaming Project
as part of its ongoing work to document the development of wargaming. They are edited by John Curry and David Burden </p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-84497454292104196062023-03-09T03:42:00.003-08:002023-03-09T03:42:40.347-08:00New Book- Battle in the Vietnam War: including Buckle for your Dust! and other wargames by Paddy Griffith and Greg McCauley<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqgeHOaAiTygg9nq6-CgEfWzNXylizPKJw4FMLfiC1Pourp3TbrRiVxf5M6NqxGgdCchodDASu-6sF793r5-VBOgOEjRERQG_MdyVJeyKSt2QT4GLfuTV5kEwqZAxp2r9o4SvjpLxStaw6T5Maoxrk_vCBK25Gi1AKrBxpzGwWC_QoQO9HkJQh2td3eA/s465/pgbattlenamcover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="465" data-original-width="292" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqgeHOaAiTygg9nq6-CgEfWzNXylizPKJw4FMLfiC1Pourp3TbrRiVxf5M6NqxGgdCchodDASu-6sF793r5-VBOgOEjRERQG_MdyVJeyKSt2QT4GLfuTV5kEwqZAxp2r9o4SvjpLxStaw6T5Maoxrk_vCBK25Gi1AKrBxpzGwWC_QoQO9HkJQh2td3eA/s320/pgbattlenamcover.gif" width="201" /></a></div><p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I am particularly excited to announce a new posthumous book by the late Paddy Griffith. There is still so much more to publish from his archive. <br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Paddy was the UK’s
<i>tactical</i> historian of his generation. He was particularly interested in
the <i>face of battle</i>, what happened when forces met on the field of
battle. This book is an attempt to assemble his key writings and wargames
around the Vietnam War into a single work, published posthumously. Written over
a number of years, most of it was never published.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This collection of
writings and musings begins with a brief review of the history of the war and
delineation of some of its key features and themes. Especially intriguing are
the essays about the birthing pains of the so-called electronic battlefield;”
the role of the helicopter; the still evident American predilection for
assuming fancy technology will work as advertised, and reduce the mortal
dangers faced by troops in combat; and the natural consequence of that
attitude, the still amazing distortion of battles created by the pressure to
and success in evacuating casualties. But the book goes beyond raw historical
analysis to dive into the question of why and how we can recreate aspects of
the war using a wide range of wargaming techniques.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Also included is
an account of <i>Memphis Mangler IV</i>, the first hobby megagame. From the
perspective of wargaming history this was the game that launched the new genre
of megagames; multiplayer wargames that attempt to represent a piece of history
including command and control issues. Close reading of the detailed briefs for
the roles in this first megagame is an excellent way to learning about Paddy
Griffith’s understanding of the Vietnam War. </span></p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-81939169630636264812023-02-27T12:00:00.003-08:002023-02-27T12:00:42.227-08:00Wargaming is Changing <p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">The nature of hobby wargaming is changing, as all hobbies
do. As an academic, author, professional gamer, publisher etc. I try to keep
informed about the trends. Of course, of more importance is perhaps playing
games on a Sunday afternoon at my local wargaming club, Lincombe Barn in
Bristol (UK). Rarely a meeting goes past without someone opening up a new rule
book or game and apologising as this is the first game with the rules. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A generalisation is that younger games often include
computer games and virtual games as part of their hobby; they are not fixated
on only playing with toy soldiers on a table top covered with terrain. Most
clubs will have members who are playing some game virtually most weeks in
addition to the traditional face to face meeting. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Already the new wargaming figure manufacturers are
struggling in the face increasing range of cheap alternatives in every scale
and period; compounded by almost every wargaming show having one or more tables
selling off an entire collection of a wargamer who has moved on to pastures new.
Talking of terrain, 3D printing and laser cut MDF kits are flooding the already
crowded wargaming terrain market. Wargaming terrain is an environmentally
friendly product as good quality scenery has a long life, some pieces passing
from wargamer to wargamer for decades. We have some robust wargaming scenery in
my club store that has been in use for decades. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At some point you will not be able to give wargaming scenery
away at a wargaming show, with the proliferation of robot ready painted scenery.
Along these lines it is likely that vehicle and miniature figures will also be
produced almost on demand. The only requirement will be to base the figures. I
can see a wargamer of the future waking up one day and saying I want to play
with 10mm Aztecs on Sunday, then the army arriving all painted within 48 hours.
I think it would take a university department perhaps five years to come up the
prototype figure painting robot, all using existing technology and software. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most wargames rules and board games will continue to be
relatively straightforward to learn and play. Wargaming competes with other
time pressures of life for many people. Therefore games that can be picked up
and enjoyed rapidly will continue to dominate the games market. Modern
wargamers play a far wider range of games and scales than those of even 10
years ago. Older wargamers can all remember people who used to say I am a
Napoleonic Wargamer or I am an Ancient Wargamer (no pun intended), and that is
all they used to play, every week. These people had nothing in their
collections outside their chosen period. In the future, wargamers will have
preferred periods, but most will play a very wide range of wargames. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One of the urban myths of our hobby is no-one makes money
out of wargaming. This is not true. Games Workshop is bigger than Marks and
Spencers in terms of stock market value. There are a lot of people out there in
small pockets making a sensible income from wargaming. You see them on eBay
(with the 100,000+ feedback scores). Some second-hand dealers are proactively
seeking out wargaming collections that suddenly become available, snapping them
up at a bargain price and reselling at a viable profit (of course they also get
landed with large amounts of stock they cannot give away, e.g. some old
figures). My best guess is there are some who are on the crest of the MDF
printed scenery wave, followed by those printing unusual 3D scenery, who are
earning good money at the moment. Of course, at some point the sales wave will
break and the opportunity for a good return will have passed. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rule writers are in a financial quandary. High production
value, hard back sets of rules grab the market attention for a short while, but
the financial risk behind them is large. If you print 30,000 sets of rules (to
get a good price from the printers), you may need to sell 15,000 in order to
break-even. As the market moves onto to the next new product, the suppliers can
be left with large amounts of stock that they cannot give away (I know, as
occasionally box loads of unsold rules arrive at my door). Osprey’s solution is
to go for a reasonable standard production value rulebook, not too long. Print
run of perhaps a 1000 and a huge warehouse to store them in for the next 20
years if necessary. Of some good rules sets such as DBA, HOTT, Alien Squad
Leader, the Portable Wargame sell despite the lack of gloss; quality of rules
trumps the lack of high-cost graphics. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In 10-20 years time, I think that the local wargaming UK clubs
will look much the same. Mostly figure games, some roleplaying, some board
games. The figures and scenery will be uniformly excellent, nearly all at what
we call display standard now. They will be playing with elegant rules, full of
clever mechanisms, but not too long to learn. Who will be supplying (and making
a profit from this)? Firms with small staffs, but with teams of robots and
printers. These businesses will supply figures, terrain mats, scenery in every
scale. A handful of these firms will be the new Games Workshops of the
wargaming world- but <i>which firms</i> they will be will depend on which
businesses can invest with enough capital (at the right time) and provide world
class quality service. </p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-79835415204360831162023-01-16T12:31:00.003-08:002023-01-16T12:31:55.704-08:00AI and wargaming articles<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Chat GPT uses an enhanced predictive text generator, along
with a large database of knowledge (until the year 2021, it knows nothing beyond
that). It has no understanding, but can generate plausible content. For example
see these random questions posted by members of Wargame Developments. </p><p class="MsoNormal"> How will this affect authors and journals? Will blogs be full of automatically generated content? <br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b> Does sound effects enhance wargames</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Answer: Sound effects can enhance the experience of playing
a wargame in several ways. They can help to create a more immersive and
realistic atmosphere, adding to the sense of being in a battlefield or
strategic environment. Sound effects can also help to emphasize important
actions or events in the game, such as the firing of weapons or the activation
of special abilities. Additionally, sound effects can add an element of
excitement and drama to the game, making it more engaging and enjoyable for
players. Ultimately, the use of sound effects in a wargame is a matter of
personal preference, and some players may find that they add to the enjoyment
of the game while others may prefer to play without them.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Describe Confrontation Analysis</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Answer: Dilemma analysis is a method of analyzing and
resolving ethical dilemmas or conflicts of values. It is a systematic approach
to problem-solving that involves evaluating the potential consequences of
different courses of action and choosing the option that best aligns with an
individual's values or ethical principles.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dilemma analysis typically involves the following steps:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Identify the dilemma: Define the problem or conflict that
needs to be resolved.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Gather information: Collect data and evidence to better
understand the context and implications of the dilemma.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Identify options: Generate and evaluate potential solutions
or courses of action.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Evaluate the consequences: Consider the potential outcomes
of each option and how they align with ethical principles and values.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Choose a course of action: Select the option that best
aligns with ethical principles and values, taking into account the potential
consequences of each option.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dilemma analysis can be applied to a wide range of ethical
dilemmas, including those related to business, personal relationships, and
public policy. It is a useful tool for helping individuals and organizations
navigate complex ethical issues and make decisions that are consistent with
their values and principles.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Write a short article for the Nugget, the journal of
Wargame Developments:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"Creating Realistic Military Units in Wargames"</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As wargame developers, one of our main goals is to create a
realistic and immersive experience for our players. One important aspect of
this is creating military units that accurately reflect the capabilities and
characteristics of real-world military units.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Here are some tips for creating realistic military units in
your wargames:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1. Research and gather accurate information: It's important
to gather accurate information about the military units you are trying to
recreate in your game. This includes their equipment, organization, training,
tactics, and any other relevant details. You can find this information through
research, consulting with military experts, or even by reaching out to military
personnel themselves.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> 2. Consider the unit's role and mission: Military units are
designed to fulfill specific roles and missions, and it's important to consider
this when creating them in your game. Is the unit a heavily-armed and armored
tank unit designed for front-line combat? Or is it a smaller, agile unit
designed for reconnaissance and special operations? Understanding the unit's
role and mission will help you design it appropriately.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">3. Balance realism with gameplay: While it's important to be
realistic, it's also important to keep in mind that your game needs to be
enjoyable to play. This means finding a balance between realism and gameplay.
For example, it may not be realistic to have a unit that is completely
invulnerable, but it may be necessary for the sake of gameplay.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">4. Test and iterate: As with any aspect of game development,
it's important to test and iterate on your military units to ensure they are
balanced and fun to play. Playtest your game with a variety of players and
gather feedback on the units to see what works and what doesn't.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By following these tips, you can create military units in
your wargames that are both realistic and enjoyable to play. Happy game
development!</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Why is it a good idea to clip the corners of counters in
Advanced Squad Leader"</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Answer:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clipping the
corners of counters in Advanced Squad Leader (ASL) is a good idea because it
can make it easier to distinguish individual counters from each other on the
game board. Clipping the corners can also make it easier to pick up and move
counters without accidentally moving other nearby counters. Additionally,
clipping the corners can help to prevent counters from sliding around on the
board or falling off the board altogether, which can be especially helpful when
playing on a slanted surface or when the board is bumped or jostled during
play. Finally, clipping the corners of counters can help to prevent wear and
tear on the counters over time, especially if the counters are frequently
handled and moved during gameplay.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Why is it a bad idea to clip the corners of counters in
Advanced Squad Leader"</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Answer:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"In
Advanced Squad Leader (ASL), it is generally a bad idea to clip the corners of
counters because it can lead to confusion about the orientation and facing of
the counter. The counters in ASL represent individual military units, and their
orientation and facing are important for determining line of sight, range, and
other game mechanics. Clipping the corners of the counters can make it
difficult to determine the orientation and facing of the unit, which can lead
to mistakes and misunderstandings during gameplay.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Additionally, clipping the corners of the counters can
damage them and make them less durable over time. ASL counters are often
handled frequently during gameplay, and the corners are a point of stress that
can become frayed or bent if they are not rounded. This can make the counters
harder to use and less visually appealing.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Overall, it is generally best to avoid clipping the corners
of ASL counters to maintain their integrity and clarity during gameplay."</p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-84289139967268205012023-01-03T08:32:00.002-08:002023-01-03T08:32:59.882-08:00Confrontation Analysis and the Ukraine War<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Confrontation Analysis is a method of analysing and gaming
situations involving multiple stakeholders with competing aims and objectives.
It has been used professionally by various organisations interested in
modelling the options for all sides and obtaining clarity on who wants what to
happen. The result is often a series of dilemmas and the method presents suggestions
on how each type of dilemma can be potentially solved. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The method is documented in Curry J. and Young M. (2017) <i>The
Confrontation Analysis Handbook: How to Resolve Confrontations by Eliminating
Dilemmas: Innovations in Wargaming Volume 3</i>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At the start of the Russian invasion I used the method to identify
and analyse the strategic options available to each side. Imagine each side has
cards (options) in their hand. Each card states what it does and summaries the
other stake holder’s position on the card (i.e. they want it to happen, the don’t
want it to happen, or they do not care). Cards can be held secretly in a player’s
hands, put on the edge of the table as a threat (i.e. I will play this card if
you do something I do not like) or be played (i.e. actioned). The method
allowed me to largely model the strategic options that have since come into ‘play’
during the subsequent war. I wish I had documented these efforts to an academic
standard at the time. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For example, Russia plays “Threaten Norwegian gas and oil installations”
(they did this with drones and close target recces). NATO plays “Mobilise Norwegian
military” card, and “Deploy Royal Marines and Royal Navy” cards to counter the
Russian threat. Russia then has a belief dilemma, as NATO does not believe that
Russia could cripple Norwegian production. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Another example is Russia plays “Threaten grain shipments by
sea from Ukraine”. NATO plays “Deploy Turkish Navy to protect merchant shipping”.
Again, Russia has a belief dilemma, as Turkey thinks it would sink Russia’s entire
Black Sea Fleet with just three of its ships. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nuclear weapons first use by Russia is an example of a
threat card that is on the card table. Russia could do it (i.e. it has the delivery
means), but just having the card as a threat does not commit Russia to use or
non-use.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The USA also has many threat cards, largely centred around
delivering weapons to Ukraine e.g. Training Ukraine pilots on F15/F16’s. Having
trained pilots and ground staff just waiting for the aircraft to be delivered to
Ukrainian airfields is a powerful threat card. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Having revisited Confrontation Analyse and used it for the Ukraine
War, I am very impressed the way it helps encourage identifying strategic options
available to all sides. As the cards are played onto the card table it
dynamically inspires the creation of further cards (options). Unlike game
theory that assumes a static state, Confrontation Analysis assumes the playing
area changes as cards are played and discarded.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The card which most surprised me was created during the
game, it was called “if you think your oil and gas industry will be working in
the morning…” The card was generated by NATO and the aim was to shut down the
Russian energy industry for the immediate future. It inspired an interesting
discussion about the feasibility of cyber, special forces, hitting critical
transport nodes(pipelines) etc. the only card the Russians could play to
counter that particular threat was “go nuclear”. This was disturbing card to say
the least to see on the card table at the end of the session. </p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-26780324745412884252022-12-28T08:06:00.002-08:002022-12-28T08:06:20.455-08:00Wargames are better predictive tools<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">On Dec 27<sup>th</sup> 2022, the BBC published an article Ukraine
war: Five ways conflict could go in 2023 (<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63987113">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63987113</a>).
Five experts give completely different predictions. </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Michael Clarke, associate director of the Strategic
Studies Institute, Exeter, UK says the war depends on the outcome of Russia’s
spring offensive with its 250,000 mobilised troops. </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Andrei Piontkovsky, scientist and analyst based
in Washington DC says Ukraine will win back its land due to “motivation,
determination and courage of the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian nation as a
whole, which is unprecedented in modern war history.”</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies,
King's College London says the war will grind on for years. </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Ben Hodges, former commanding general, United
States Army Europe says Ukraine will win. </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>David Gendelman, military expert based in Israel
avoids saying how the war is going to end. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Five experts and five contrasting interpretations. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have been wargaming the Ukraine War at an operational and
sometimes tactical level since the war began. This was to develop my
professional understanding. In November I published on my blog (<a href="http://wargamingco.blogspot.com/">http://wargamingco.blogspot.com/</a>)
my conclusion that the Russian army would rout by the end of the winter. I
outlined my reasoning and said, of course, I could be wrong as leaders make
decisions that influence future outcomes. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Models must be continually re-evaluated in the face of
actual real-world data. My crude model is only a model and is not reality. I
assumed Russia would keep 33% of their PGM as a strategic reserve v NATO or
Chinese aggression. I was wrong, Russia has used almost everything they have
(leaving them very vulnerable, especially to China if the latter decides to
realign the international border in the Far East)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the real world, leaders make decisions that may be
different from those used in a wargame (even if those decisions are not
rationale from our perspective). The Ukraine power system has been hit badly,
but it is not to the extent that the country is moved back to the 19th century.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is because: </p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Ukraine has a large repair capacity that is
expanding (they have taken on 1000 more staff recently)</li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Europe is feeding in power directly to the
Ukrainian grid (10% of what Ukraine needs)</li><li>Power lines are hard to knock out </li><li>Europe is sending staggering numbers of
generators to the Ukraine. Ukr has spare truck capacity to move anything it
needs, including fuel for generators. </li><li>Spares for their grid are coming in from around Eastern
Europe. They can use second hand and repair the broken. </li><li>
The Ukraine power grid was designed to stand up
to NATO attack during the Cold War</li></ul><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal">The majority of Ukraine has had no interruption to its power
supplies. This should not be seen as in any way mitigating the misery of those in
the east facing regular power cuts every day. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The military and the state war machine are largely
inoculated from civilian power shortages, as the former tends to have
generators and fuel. Hitting the Ukraine power system may cause misery for
some, but it does not impact Ukraine national combat power. So, in summary,
Russia has used far more PGMs than I expected (I was wrong), but it would need
many times more PGMs fired within a short period of time to create a lasting
impact on the power grid of the Ukraine. To me Russia seems to be repeating
Hitler’s terror bombing directive from World War II; historical hindsight shows
Germany should have focussed on military targets with its limited airpower. Similarly
Russia should use its dwindling stockpile to attempt to have a military impact.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are big questions about what will happen next:</p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Will Ukraine decide to advance during the
winter? Ukr combat power is increasing in terms of troop numbers, armour and
IDF. Russia is still waiting for the next batch of troops (though it did put
perhaps 50,000 mercenaries, foreign troops, penal battalions and newly mobilised
troops into the front line to replace the 100,000 casualties)</li><li>Will Russia fall below the critical level of
resupply (67% according to QJM) and have to fall back? </li><li>
Will the Russian army rout? </li></ul><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal">I think the answer is probably yes to all three questions,
but probably is not 100% certainty. Of course, senior leaders may also make
decisions that change future outcomes. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">No wargame will tell us if Belarus will launch an invasion
of the Ukraine (or whether Poland will then invade Belarus without NATO
agreement). However, a wargame allows us to explore these possibilities. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As wargamers, we tend to overlook the value of the
integration in our wargames of the inter-related factors of geography, time,
space, ORBATs, logistics, etc. Personally, I have little interest in trying to
determine the outcome of future wars just by talking about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I say let us get out a map, get some counters
to show the military forces involves, label the military geography, talk
through our underpinning assumptions, then discuss the future course of the
conflict. If you want to understand something you have to do some analysis,
game it, and then do more analysis</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the world of computing, we design IT systems, networks
and software applications using a whole variety of models such as network diagrams,
decision trees, data dictionaries, UML etc. If someone wanted to design a multimillion-pound
system by just talking about it they would be seen as slightly detached from
reality. So why do people think they can discuss one of the most complex intractable
problems of all, war, without the mental tools imbedded in wargaming to analyse
the situation?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you want to know why the Ukrainian power system is still
up see the Reuters article <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eastern-europe-holds-key-keeping-ukraines-power-2022-12-21/">https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eastern-europe-holds-key-keeping-ukraines-power-2022-12-21/</a>
</p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-23806092645658219702022-11-19T02:33:00.001-08:002022-11-19T02:33:06.854-08:00My wargame says Ukraine is going to win as the Russian army collapses<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">I have been wargaming the Ukraine War since it began. To be
clear this was for professional reasons, not for entertainment. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I believe, as of November 2022, the Russian army in the
Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Whether an army routs after it reaches its
breakpoint in wargaming terms is a matter of chance, however, my prediction is
the Russian army will rout by the end of the winter.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have gamed the first start part of the war in 2015 and the
cyber dimension many times, but in January 2022, I designed an operational
level game set at brigade level to model the forthcoming Russian invasion. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The key features of the wargame were:</p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>2 day turns</li><li>Ukraine brigades largely had a combat strength of
4</li><li>The Russian equivalents rolled a six sided
combat strength to determine their initial combat strength (their tank units
had a plus on the dice roll). The dice roll reflected my understanding about
the wild variability in the combat effectiveness of their units. (We now know
some of the initial wave of Russian forces included follow on forces, such as
military police, rather than just front line combat units).</li><li>
Russian artillery was included in their units</li><li>Ukraine had separate artillery units that could
be switched from combat to combat to reflect their flexibility.</li><li>In combat each side rolled their combat strength
in dice. 5 or 6 caused a casualty, 6 if the enemy was dug in e.g. urban area,
constricted terrain etc. </li><li>
Rates of advance were based on Depuy’s work
(work was quoted by the UK staff college).</li><li>Russia could supply less of its forces, the
further it moved from its supporting railways.</li><li>
Separatist infantry would not fight outside
their home territory</li><li>
Russian precision guided missiles (PGMs) were
not that effective</li><li> Russian airpower made an impact until losses forced
the Russians to reduce air attacks in order to keep their airforce ‘in being’.
Soviet era air defence was effective at shooting down Soviet era aircraft.</li></ul><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal">My pre-war games predicted the actual outcome of the Russian
advance grinding to a halt. Ukraine was just too large, with too large an army,
with too few axis of advance. Russian logistics meant their axis of advance
were rapidly reduced to just a few lines of assault along major roads. Russian airpower
and PGMs started by hitting strategic targets, then was reallocated to tactical
targets as the advance slowed down. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Since the initial games, I have continued to update the game
as it moved into the static phase, then the Ukraine counter attack. I changed
the game turns to represent 3 days, then a week, as both sides moved towards exhaustion.
I play out the next 4 weeks, then review my model against the actual war. Logistics
is a major part of the game, with each side getting a limited number of supply
points per turn. Each supply point allows a unit to attack or defend at full
strength. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Neither side has shown operational brilliance; the war is
all about amassing sufficient supplies in order to launch an attack, as well as
causing attrition on the other side with indirect fire. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My game included a Ukraine advance on the east front, until
it ran out of supplies, followed by an advance on Kherson. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My wargame has also found that Russia no longer has the PGMs
or airpower to cripple Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure. The Ukraine
air defence works, the Russia does not work very well, the latter has exhausted
most of its munition stock. Ukraine infrastructure is based on the Cold War and
was designed to withstand NATO attack. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My model suggests both sides are near their breakpoint as
they approach 50% losses, however Ukraine has a higher breakpoint that Russia.
I based this rule on the fact that Ukraine has maintained a policy of individual
troop rotation, for example giving leave for soldiers to attend weddings and
funerals, as well as rotating units out of the front line. Ukraine is also
defending its home territory. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are important questions that will probably be only
answered with post war analysis, such as how are the Russian
casualties distributed between units of differing training, morale,
capabilities and equipment? Or is the entire Russian Army riddled with
incompetence due to decades of corruption? Do the Russians have some
units in reserve that actually know how to fight?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Prediction is always hard, especially predictions about the
future. However, my wargame-based analysis says the Russian army is going to
collapse, Ukraine is going to retake most of its lost territory. Of course, I
might be wrong, but is it better to base a prediction on a tried and tested wargame
model or just a well written piece of narrative as appears in our national newspapers?
</p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-69849292744515861052022-09-11T08:37:00.003-07:002022-09-15T09:04:03.573-07:00Wargaming Tactical Actions in the Ukraine War <p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">As part of my work on comparing wargames with future
conflicts I examined low level tactics in the war using various videos. Then I
starting using the current US Army wargame rules as modified by the first 6
months of the war. Note: the work is for research, not entertainment. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At the start of the war, the Ukrainians were bad at war,
they were fortunate enough to be against an opponent who was <i>very </i>bad.
As the war progressed actions have moved from Bn attacks, to company to routinely
platoon. For example, the latest decisive Ukr counter attack NE of Kharkiv had
a whole 15 tanks in it. Darwinian selection has increased survivability on both
sides, as has Western training (in person and via the ubiquitous virtual Zoom).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Examples from the early stages of the war include:</p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Ukr entrenchments were inadequate and field
discipline poor. </li><li>Ukr shooting down a helo from the front. This is
risky as the helo may get upset if you miss and if you hit it may crash on you.
Shooting from the rear is preferable.</li><li>A single Ukr with an NLAW climbs over village
houses roofs, swearing in Russian all the way (they are ethnic Russian) and
fires at Ru BMP. Probably misses, so Ru platoon then mounts up and retreats
from village. i.e. one man faced off a platoon and apparently recaptured the
village on their own with a miss. There were probably more Ukr infantry in
support off camera </li><li>A single Ukr tank hides behind house and
ambushes Ru armoured convoy on its own. It misses twice at point blank range, a
common mistake for novice tankers, before it knocks out several Ru armoured
vehicles. The Russian column stops when engaged, but would have had time to
drive out of the kill zone while this was going on. However, the Ukr tank was
probably destroyed by dismounted Ru infantry and this was edited out of the
footage. A better tactic would have been to ambush the end of the convoy, not
the middle, and fire from 1.2km away. Then withdraw into dead ground. </li><li>A Ru depleted platoon successfully ambushed two
Ukr towed artillery vehicles. The latter were too close together that allowed
both to be hit by the same ambush. The Ru move up the road and ambush two Ukr
BTRs who come to investigate. This is brave move as the Ru had no anti-tank
capability. The BTRs stop in the kill zone and the Ukr infantry debus, instead
of driving straight through the ambush. Both sides throw lots of grenades and
the BTRs mount up, then retreat up the road. The Ukr BTRs should have withdrawn
to a safe distance and then shot the Ru pln to pieces (as the Ru had no AT).</li></ul><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal">How have the Americans updated their wargaming rules after
studying the detail of the conflict? </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ru still apparently directs its powerful artillery using
pre-planned strikes. Ukr calls it in when it has a target in sight. Ukr
artillery must keep moving as Russian ‘divisional’ level assets will fire back.
i.e. Ru has apparently not developed its artillery support methods since WWII. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ru attacks with a thorough plan and moves at speed, until
there is a change of the plan e.g. a road is blocked. Then they pause for orders.
(in wargaming terns roll 5 or 6 on D6 for a 12 minute turn). i.e. the Ukr
players gets perplexed by the Ru columns randomly stopping for a number of game
terms. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Ukr T64BV tanks are more effective than Ru T72BM ,
therefore Ru need 3 to 1 odds to succeed in a hasty attack from column of
march. For those interested in stats at effective range, video indicates a Ukr
tank stands an 80% of knocking out a Ru tank that is stationary in the open at effective
range. At short range, less than 800m, the chance goes down to 65% of a kill,
perhaps as the Ukr lack of training then shows. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Looking at the 2020 version of the rules, the American’s
underestimated the hit rate of their weapons v Ru hardware. They thought their
M1A2 tank would knock out a Russian T72 55% of the time per shot. Conversely,
they over estimated the Russian effectiveness. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At the risk of a tirade of objections, I find in many ways
tactical combat in the Ukraine War is similar to 1944/45 North West Europe.
Artillery proceeds armoured advances. Tactical air is not that good (SAMs stop
aircraft at high level and cheap point air defence makes low level also risky).
However. tactical air is replaced by drones and long-range artillery; drones
replace air reconnaissance. In the end, infantry have to debus from their APCs,
4 wheeled drive vehicles etc and clear the objective. Logistics centred around
roads and rail is crucial. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The reassuring message for the west from the war is Russia is not very
good at a tactical level. They can move large amounts of armour very fast, as
per their doctrine, but their combat capability is poor. A UK armoured platoon
of say 2 Challenger 2’s with 3 sections of infantry would be likely to use a
hasty defence (i.e move into an unexpected ambush location after the Russian
pre-planned IDF of likely defensive positions), and knock out a Russian company
of 4 T72s and 10 BMPs on its own. Of course, in reality, the Ru would retreat
after losing the first few vehicles. The only UK problem would be ammunition,
we have given a lot of our war stocks to Ukr. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, Wellington said that
if he had the experienced army of veterans from the Peninsular War, instead of
his composite allied army, he would simply have advanced over the top of
Napoleon’s larger army. It is difficult not to imagine a NATO army with
British, Poles or American’s doing the same if it came to a confrontation with
Russia. </p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal">_________________________________________________________________ <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
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Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Mention"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Smart Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hashtag"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Unresolved Mention"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Smart Link"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt;
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">After writing the above I came across an interview with a Ukr
Tank Commanders 28<sup>th</sup> June 2022</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYmwfC99eek">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYmwfC99eek</a></p>
<p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Tanks have not become obsolete on the modern
battlefield, their role has become more significant and the variety of tasks
has increased. Comment: I noted YouTube videos that tanks carrying wounded back
from the front lines as well as munitions to the front line. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>During 2014/15 Ukr tanks operated in groups of 1
or 2, now they operate in company groups and infantry understand combined arms
tactics with them. Comment tanks without infantry support are very vulnerable. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>The Ukr operate in coy groups of 3 platoons with
3 tanks each plus 1 tank for coy commander. Sometimes they use 4 tanks per platoon
plus 2 for coy commander. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>Ukr is capturing and reusing Russian tanks,
including manning them with infantry. Comment: captured enemy tanks were
routinely reused in WWII. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>Russian tank losses were routinely because of
poor training or just running out of fuel in the middle of the road. They were
captured in good working order. Comment did they hope to retrieve the tanks or
was there some other reason why the crews did not wreck the tank when abandoning
it?</li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>The Ukr offers a bounty for capturing enemy equipment
and handing it in. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>Ru uses tanks in groups of company level or more,
with 10 tanks per 500 metres. However, they do not have enough armour left for
a 2<sup>nd</sup> wave. They are operating their tanks in line with their
doctrine. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>Tanks on both sides move their damaged tanks
back 6 hours, 200-300km behind the lines to repair. Both sides cannot risk
their limited repair capacity near the battlefield. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>There are just 3 tank repair plants in Russia
and they can repair/ refurbish from storage 100-200 tanks per month. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>The Ukr specialist repair factory was mentioned
on TV, then got hit by a missile. Destroying the plant and killing many key tank
repair staff. Ukr gets 20-30 tanks repaired per month in a factory somewhere in
eastern Europe i.e. 2-3 companies per month. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Both sides are adding reactive armour when
upgrading (Russia uses KONTAKT-1, Ukr Nozh). This takes 2-3 welders one day per
tank. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Ru 90% of T80BVMs have been destroyed.T72 B3BMS
and B72B3, 900 have been lost, 800 are still in combat (June 2022). That is why
T62, old T72 and T80s have been brought in to battle manned by older crews who
served on these tanks in the past.</li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>Ukr is struggling to use thermal imaging equipment
due to poor training. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span>Training a tank crew on a modern Western tank
takes 1 month. Training the repair crew takes 3-4 months. Ukr wants the
remaining T72 from Europe (but not old ones from Africa, as these are badly
maintained).</li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Ukr is almost out of T64’s and all new units use
T72’s</li></ol><p class="MsoNormal">
</p>
<p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-88203992864003576992022-08-05T06:07:00.000-07:002022-08-05T06:07:29.186-07:00Modern Table Top Games are Broken <p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">I was playing yet another new set of wargaming rules
recently published by Osprey and after a handful of turns I realised I could predict
the outcome of the game; the next two hours were merely an exercise in rolling
dice. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Modern wargaming rules are frequently well written, include
many illustrations and use clever game mechanisms to help model the period and
above all, they are simple. Simple is the problem. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the early days of table top wargames, the wargamers such
as Tony Bath, Don Featherstone, Charlie Wesencraft etc. had simple generic
rules such as infantry move 6 inches, cavalry 12, guns fire 24 inches, roll to
hit and roll to save etc… However, the simplicity of the rules was not an
issue. Wargaming involved the non-trivial task of historical research in what
was a desert of tactical and operational military history source material.
Buying figures was expensive; basing and painting them time-consuming. Scenery
was not cheap if from model railways; alternatively took many hours if homemade.
Finding opponents and travelling to meet them also took effort. Actually
playing a wargame was the culmination of the many man hours; no-one was that
worried about the simplicity of the game. They were just pleased to get the
toys on the tabletop. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Wargames gradually increased in complexity in the 1970’s and
1980’s, with the WRG rules being classics of the era. The latter took time to
study and table top battles were complex events that precluded simple
mathematical projections or generalisations that could predict the outcome. The
soundest strategy with such rules was usually to apply historical tactics. Of
course, the complexity of the games meant most players played a limited number
of sets of rules that they gradually became masters of. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The simplicity of modern rules means that there are certain
winning tactics, that seem to apply to many of these sets, such as: </p>
<p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li> More dice- the essence of winning is to get into
positions to roll more dice than your opponent e.g. attacking an enemy unit
coming around impassable terrain by two or preferably three units.</li><li>An extension of the above is to attack from the
flank, whilst also attacking from the front. </li><li>Massed artillery batteries work in all periods.
Rules allow single pieces of artillery to have an impact, but if you have multiple
batteries firing at one target, the enemy unit routinely becomes combat
ineffective in a few turns. </li><li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>In games that give a player the number of dice
for their actions based on the number of units, the strategy is to generate a
few really low points cost units just to get more dice than your opponent. More
dice for movement makes your army more agile.</li><li>In games where an army routs when it looks x
number of units, the aim is always to attempt to kill the enemy’s weakest
units, as they are the easiest to kill. Avoid the guards or elite or veterans,
aim for the militia or novices. </li><li><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
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<![endif]-->There seem to be simple game strategies that work irrespective
of historical period, scale of figures or set or rules.
</li></ol><p>Of course, the more dice that are
rolled in a game, the more chance of the law of averages applys and the easier it is to predict the outcome. If rules are
too simple, is easy for players to project the likely outcome of the game after
just a few moves, reducing the excitement that is an essential part of engaging
players in a wargame.</p><p>Perhaps I am approaching the
games with the wrong mindset. Instead of crunching the maths, I should view the
toys as real, the battle as history and consider how a historical commander
would approach the problems. Don Featherstone said you do not need rules to
recreate history, just a player who plays historically.
</p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-90012701747392220712022-04-26T12:06:00.002-07:002022-04-26T12:06:06.821-07:00Matrix Games Come of Age<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">“Does anybody know when the Geiger counter were last
serviced?” </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The war in the Ukraine has changed the discussion of modern
warfare to include the use of nuclear weapons. An option for Russia is to use
nukes to try to introduce shock and awe into the campaign, to turn Ukraine into
a failed state and/ or to shock NATO into not supplying more munitions. This
does not suggest the idea is sensible, but it is possible. Russia has them and
Putin might order their use.</p><p class="MsoNormal">When Putin said he was putting the Russian nuclear forces on
“special alert” a lot of things starting happening in the UK, including
wargames. After the initial shock, bewilderment and checks whether Putin’s
words were just fake news, local authorities started to leap into action
(relatively speaking as local authorities are somewhat ponderous concerns).
They started asking questions and finding old dusty plans on the shelves at the
back of the archives. “How long does fallout last for?” “Where can we house a
hundred thousand refugees?”. Local authorities are starting to consider
questions from the last Cold War in some hasty exercises.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Our armed forces have also reacted; submarines went to sea.
Establishment guards had their pistols put back in the armoury’s and replaced
with assault rifles (plus 80 rounds). They even went to the firing ranges to
zero their weapons and put some rounds down. Pistols look good, are nice and
light, but do not cut it if you think enemy special forces might actually
assault your position. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On the wargaming front, a lot has been happening as well. The
method of Matrix Games has been challenged on the grounds of the lack of
scientific rigour (not enough rules, maps, hexes, combat results tables etc…),
but also by those who prefer unstructured discussions as the path to
understanding (all wargames are rubbish brigade). The academic evidence is that
the various variants of matrix games help impose a structure on narrative
gaming, and are therefore better than unstructured narrative games. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Despite the detractors, some hastily developed matrix games are
being used. They are fast to develop and take less than 2 hours to play. Useful
to crystallise the stakeholders aims and objectives. Scenarios rotate around
how NATO should react to: nukes being used in Ukraine, nukes being used
adjacent to the Polish border with fallout over NATO member’s territory, a nuke
being dropped in the North Sea, Wolverhampton being destroyed etc…</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Reality will always different from any wargame, so how are
they useful?</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Playing them iteratively develops a playbook of
options that can be used in such crises.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>It builds the relevant language of conflict
amongst the advisors.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>It develops the crises team in time efficient
manner.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>It practises the decision maker’s advisors with
unfamiliar scenarios.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>It can also be used to signal Russia about bad
things that would be triggered by their actions. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In short, playing some Matrix Games increases the change of
the right people making the best choices in incredibly difficult situations. As
always, though, so much depends on the quality of players and facilitators. Who
would have thought that a method of gaming in the hobby space some 34 years ago
would make the transition to the professional space, and is a (small) part of
our conflict response? Matrix Games have come of age. </p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-31400920908467301342022-03-18T09:39:00.001-07:002022-03-18T09:39:42.058-07:00Ukraine 2022- Why Are Our Wargames Wrong? <p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Some weeks before the war, I designed a wargame about the
forthcoming war. It was a manual multi-player solo wargame with all the players
on the Russian side. The game was simplistic and focussed on strategic and operational
level decisions; there was no element of tactical. To be clear the game was for
research purposes, to encompass a complex situation in a single model combining
ORBATs, time, space, terrain and cyber; i.e. a wargame.</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjiiTWYA7m4hyWQyAoqIXoiEraCAcgaZFKLeP-LBKaB60CaCt3pIQZQxZXZ0z-WkdAVh5Lj3Eshyi1DE6vTbUX9uEQr3tuXdsF9sfj_ZafH_INjXdA1vDS8TWtarIecXJQ5D9J0kDOcj7jfnzWB0DaEdSakKc-xQIhz9TP4kdhaoRVZzkzkySFpj698AA=s4608" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3456" data-original-width="4608" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjiiTWYA7m4hyWQyAoqIXoiEraCAcgaZFKLeP-LBKaB60CaCt3pIQZQxZXZ0z-WkdAVh5Lj3Eshyi1DE6vTbUX9uEQr3tuXdsF9sfj_ZafH_INjXdA1vDS8TWtarIecXJQ5D9J0kDOcj7jfnzWB0DaEdSakKc-xQIhz9TP4kdhaoRVZzkzkySFpj698AA=s320" width="320" /></a></div>I have studied the development of wargaming for some decades
and so when I presented a session at Connections UK in 2018, <i>Evaluating
Wargaming v the Ukraine Experience 2014-15</i>, I was not totally surprised at
the negative reaction of some professionals to my work. Having talked to senior
figures in the Ukraine military who were in the war 2014/15, I identified
various issues with our wargames that were designed <i>prior</i> to the war.
Basically, our wargames got it wrong. I then went on to publish a referred
journal article with my evidence and submitted it for peer review in <i>Simulation
& Gaming Journal</i> in 2020. The article demonstrated major variations in
Cold War tactical games (i.e. errors), but the article then summarised the
clear academic evidence demonstrating the utility of wargames. <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It has quickly become apparent that the professional
wargames designed about the impending conflict had got it wrong. Ukraine did
not fall quickly under the onslaught of the Russian war machine. In contrast my
game was reflected the pace of the actual war and the issues of taking cities.
Of course, this could have been by chance (roll a 6 and your game design is
right, roll 1 to 5 and it is wrong). The professional games were better
designed, included current intelligence, integrated tactical into the
operational model and were superior in every way; except they were wrong. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I pondered this and have discussed it with various people and
have gravitated towards a potential insight. My design was based on history: </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>the rates of advance were straight out of Dupuy’s
Quantified Judgement Model (his tables for this were quoted verbatim by the UK
Staff College), </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>history demonstrates that urban combat is slow
(so units in urban area saved against a hit on 4, 5 or 6), </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Russian units were untried and combat ability
was determined when entering combat, etc. It is very easy in operational
analysis to basis a wargame design on the latest speculative intelligence. </p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Russian logistics are ridiculous. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rowland, in <i>The Stress of Battle</i>, showed that weapon
performance in the ranges (and by implication, the sales brochures) were an
order of magnitude better than realistic field exercises (using lasers) and the
latter were again an order of magnitude better than actual combat. For example,
as a I sniper I get 95% hits at 300 metres on the range, in simulated combat I
get 9% hits and in actual battle I get 1% hits. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My insight that is wargames about future
conflict need to be informed by the current, but embedded in the realities of
military history. Ignore the generals who say this war will be completely different from the last one.
Do not believe the weapon sales brochures. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>References</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Curry J. (2020) 'Professional wargaming: a flawed but useful
tool’, Simulation & Gaming, 51 (5), pp. 612-631. <a href="http://researchspace.bathspa.ac.uk/13197/1/13197.pdf">http://researchspace.bathspa.ac.uk/13197/1/13197.pdf</a>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-77640334569261013272021-10-25T12:02:00.000-07:002021-10-25T12:02:00.828-07:00Paddy Griffith's Game of War: Reflections on a Lifetime of Wargaming<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Paddy Griffith’s wargame of Operation Sealion, at the British
Army Staff College in 1974, was a ground breaking piece of research. It was a
serious piece of academic research, using a wargame to explore a contested area
of military history. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Paddy assembled a team of subject matter experts from
Britain and Germany to run a wargame to explore what would have happened if the
Germans had launched their planned invasion of Britain. To umpire and play in
the game, he used combat veterans with senior command experience, including
some who were involved in 1940. They included Adolf Galland, the Luftwaffe ace.
This is the story of that game, including previously unpublished material such
as briefings, analysis, guidance for umpires and post-game reflections. Their
conclusions about the outcome of the game, based on using a wargame as an
academic tool, were unanimous. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“The resulting analysis of the Sealion Wargame is the most
authoritative assessment yet produced of the prospects for this titanic and
consequential hypothetical struggle.” Peter Perla</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The book is published by the History of Wargaming Project as
part of its work to document the development of wargaming. </p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-USUCOm_ZnVM/YXb_AYGVNlI/AAAAAAAAAh8/lV0oMmT1bxI0s-nKpCwETHCc_qalL9eHACLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/cover%2BFINAL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1486" data-original-width="2048" height="373" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-USUCOm_ZnVM/YXb_AYGVNlI/AAAAAAAAAh8/lV0oMmT1bxI0s-nKpCwETHCc_qalL9eHACLcBGAsYHQ/w515-h373/cover%2BFINAL.jpg" width="515" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-91230548338666679312021-07-10T11:50:00.003-07:002021-10-25T11:58:17.099-07:00My latest book- Paddy Griffith’s Wargaming Operation Sealion <p> The Game that Launched Academic Wargaming</p><p class="MsoNormal"> Paddy Griffith’s wargame of <i>Operation Sealion</i>, at the British
Army Staff College in 1974, was a ground breaking piece of research. It was a
serious piece of academic research, using a wargame to explore a contested area
of military history. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Paddy assembled a team of subject matter experts from
Britain and Germany to run a wargame to explore what would have happened if the
Germans had launched their planned invasion of Britain. To umpire and play in
the game, he used combat veterans with senior command experience, including
some who were involved in 1940. They included Adolf Galland, the Luftwaffe ace.
This is the story of that game, including previously unpublished material such
as briefings, analysis, guidance for umpires and post-game reflections. Their
conclusions about the outcome of the game, based on using a wargame as an
academic tool, were unanimous. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“The resulting analysis of the Sealion Wargame is the most
authoritative assessment yet produced of the prospects for this titanic and
consequential hypothetical struggle.” Peter Perla</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The book is published by the History of Wargaming Project as
part of its work to document the development of wargaming. </p><p class="MsoNormal">A talk about this book is now available on YouTube <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kenvVK3U7qc&t=808s " target="_blank">YouTube</a><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YjdRLPegSSM/YOnrxmVr7xI/AAAAAAAAAhM/49doBNT8TvIxQw7_CSI25YiWDMPL1CCwwCLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/FINAL%2Bcover.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1311" data-original-width="2048" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YjdRLPegSSM/YOnrxmVr7xI/AAAAAAAAAhM/49doBNT8TvIxQw7_CSI25YiWDMPL1CCwwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/FINAL%2Bcover.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-86866331246154619252021-06-03T08:49:00.001-07:002021-07-10T11:50:56.969-07:00<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzzG5qTuZwI/YLj5URH9SrI/AAAAAAAAAgM/e0IEd2XHI-YBxYGB49lO6wdm8pez4X1tACLcBGAsYHQ/s1125/rolltosavecover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1125" data-original-width="862" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzzG5qTuZwI/YLj5URH9SrI/AAAAAAAAAgM/e0IEd2XHI-YBxYGB49lO6wdm8pez4X1tACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/rolltosavecover.gif" /></a></div><p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal">Public health practitioners respond to a wide variety of
disease events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Professional games
place responders in situations where they face the decisions, conflicts, and
challenges that they would experience in a real event. Playing professional
games can help everyone understand the complex, inter-agency, challenges that
often come up during these situations. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In this book we describe how to design professional games
for disease response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We cover all forms
of disease, from chronic and non-infectious diseases to bio-terrorism
events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We intersperse discussions of
game design with examples of games, from games on mental health services to
naturally occurring infectious disease outbreaks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition we discuss aspects of disease
response that you need to understand in order to avoid common pitfalls in
designing these games. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Professional game designers are often called upon to design
games that involve disease outbreak.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Public health professionals can find themselves playing in, or
sponsoring, games on disease response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Both groups can benefit from an understanding of the basic concepts of
game design, disease response, and gaming disease response.</p><p>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The book is available direct from Amazon </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gLapi6SxHZo/YLj5ofYBZXI/AAAAAAAAAgU/6D-KS5B5GcMw5sJWvgbVwTmmVhDHZBvXgCLcBGAsYHQ/s257/confrontationfalklandscover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gLapi6SxHZo/YLj5ofYBZXI/AAAAAAAAAgU/6D-KS5B5GcMw5sJWvgbVwTmmVhDHZBvXgCLcBGAsYHQ/s0/confrontationfalklandscover.gif" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>This book is the first of a new series, each volume explores
a particular area of warfare through the use of wargames. Each game has been
crafted to examine different aspects of the conflict. Playing these games,
along with reading the supporting designer’s notes, aims to help the reader
actively develop their understanding through experiential learning. The goal is
to help them develop a deeper understanding than from just reading primary and
secondary sources about the war. Reading memoirs and commentary is essential,
but so is making command decisions, such as looking at the conceptual map of
the Falkland Islands and pondering how close to move the British aircraft
carriers to the land action. It is in this space that wargaming rules supreme
in the taxonomy of interactive learning techniques.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This book contains four games:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Game #1: Matrix Game- where it is possible for the wider
conflict to be resolved without a land battle on East Falklands.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Game #2: The Falklands War: Task Force Commander- looks at
the decisions made by the Royal Navy to support the amphibious landings and
subsequent advance to Stanley. It is essentially a game about naval risk
management.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Game #3: Battalion Commander- explores the land battle;
often decisions in the planning stage set out the path to subsequent success or
failure.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This includes a sample scenario the Battle for Goose Green</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Game #4: The Falklands II (1984)- was a professional wargame
designed Paddy Griffith about a potential second Argentine invasion several
years after the Falklands War. It includes a detailed model of Cold War air
combat. The game demonstrated that a second Argentine invasion would initially
be successful.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The book is published by the History of Wargaming Project as
part of ongoing work to document the development of wargaming.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></p>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-20652781136483527392020-09-02T08:59:00.000-07:002021-07-10T11:51:24.207-07:00New book- A Practical Guide to Medieval Warfare: Exploring History through Wargaming<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">New book by Richard Brooks and John Curry. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I started work on this book approximately 30 years ago in a series in the Nugget, the Journal of Wargame Developments. As a result of lockdown, the book is finally published. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">It is available from Amazon and other online book stores, including for the Kindle. <br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Medieval warfare is part of our culture. However, there are severe limits to our current understanding of the conduct of military campaigns culminating in sieges and pitch battles during the medieval era. This book is an attempt to develop further understanding of some aspects of the medieval military reality, in particular around the operational and tactical scale.</span><b><br /><br /></b> <span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">It looks at the medieval operation art of war such as the numbers involved, scouting, logistics, march rates and the length of the campaign season.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Then it looks at the medieval battle; how armies deployed, advanced, fought, won and lost. The many topics include dressing the ranks, the advance to contact, battle cries and pre-battle speeches.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The third section explores sieges and street fighting. such as the lengths of sieges, success rates. and the practical details involved in storming a castle.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The fourth section of the book includes five sets of rules to allow the reader to create interactive models of medieval warfare on the tabletop for them to explore.</span> From pitch battles, to skirmishes, raids and retreats, the games allow the reader to create interactive models of medieval warfare on the tabletop for them to explore. </p><p class="MsoNormal">This book is written from the perspective that there was a medieval art of war. War took time, effort, planning, logistics and skill to initiate, conduct and win. We assume that the medieval warrior largely knew what they were doing and if we do not comprehend the decisions they took when waging war, this reflects our lack of understanding, not theirs. This book aims to fill some of the gaps in our mental models of the medieval warfare. </p><p> Game #1: <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Middle Aged Spread - Battle level rules 1066-1485</span><br /><br />Game #2: <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Sword and Spear: Wargaming Low-Level Battle Tactics</span><br /><br />Game #3: <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Once More unto the Breach: Skirmish Rules</span><br /><br />Game #4: <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Gaming Retreats: Cymerau (1257)</span>ar. It includes a detailed model of Cold War air combat. The game demonstrated that a second Argentine invasion would initially be successful. <br /><br /><span lang="en-gb">Game #5: <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Gaming Cattle Raids: The Night Belongs to Paddy</span></span></p><p><span lang="en-gb"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4yTnZVA_IBQ/X0_BBmHP2yI/AAAAAAAAAdU/UMVUhS2BPNk_mPD2uHwI9HNlkrnRwsPzwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1635/practicalguidemedievalcover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1635" data-original-width="1256" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4yTnZVA_IBQ/X0_BBmHP2yI/AAAAAAAAAdU/UMVUhS2BPNk_mPD2uHwI9HNlkrnRwsPzwCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/practicalguidemedievalcover.gif" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-72348314712834751682020-05-24T02:09:00.001-07:002020-05-24T02:09:50.314-07:00The Handbook of Cyber Wargames: Wargaming the 21st Century New bookCo-authored with Nick Drage, this is an exciting new handbook covering the emerging battles in cyber space. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Cyber security is one of the big challenges of the 21<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">st</span></sup>
century. Failure to meet the threat can have major consequences for the
individual, a company, an NGO or a nation state. The cost of cyber crime is in
the billions of pounds per year. Cyber wargames are an essential part of the
training cycle, education and operational analysis needed to rise to meet this
threat. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This handbook aims to fill a gap in the training for
cyber-attacks and cyber warfare. By providing worked examples of different
types of manual cyber wargame, including aims and objectives for each, it
provides a basis for the reader to understand the potential range of games on
offer. It also helps educate clients about the different types of cyber wargame
available and can help them procure the right type of game in order to meet
their needs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Cyber wargaming combines two complex fields:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>wargame design and cyber operations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This handbook is full of examples of such
manual games. It includes examples of:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Network attack
and defence exercises<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Committee games</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Company and state
level games<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Example of a
Matrix Game<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Analysing the
cyber security space using Confrontation Analysis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Media Wars: The
Battle to Dominate the Information Space<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Attack Chain
modelling<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The book is full of additional information for the reader,
such as how a cyber conflict might develop or what the key decisions C-Suite
leaders need to consider when faced by a sustained cyber attack. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="http://www.wargaming.co/">www.wargaming.co</a></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_9B2x0bvLP4/Xso5uh9lF_I/AAAAAAAAAcA/SuisSq3URw02rtLTX07gtWAe36dAnb59gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/front%2Bcover%2B6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1216" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_9B2x0bvLP4/Xso5uh9lF_I/AAAAAAAAAcA/SuisSq3URw02rtLTX07gtWAe36dAnb59gCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/front%2Bcover%2B6.jpg" width="243" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-77806348997073167222020-03-25T08:51:00.001-07:002020-03-25T08:51:28.948-07:00Message of hope from a gamer in ChinaI was most touched to receive this email from a gamer in China I know. So I thought I would share it.<br />
<br />
John<br />
<br />
Dear All:
<br />
<div>
This is Frank from MiniWarfare, China. You received this letter
because your email is in my contact book. Among you, there are rule
writers, manufacturers, retailers, editors, in US, UK, Italy and so on.</div>
<br />
<div>
As far as I know, things are very bad in America and Europe. The
government asked businesses to shut down and work from home, just as
China did 2 months ago. You are in a very difficult time but what I
would like to tell you, do not panic, it will be OK.</div>
<br />
<div>
You know, things are getting better in China. My province has
basically returned to normal work. The children will return to school in
two weeks. Now we don't need to wear masks outdoors.</div>
<div>
<div>
In your countries, the population density is lower than in China,
and the medical conditions are better than in China, so don't be
pessimistic, we can make it, so can you.</div>
</div>
<br />
<div>
Wish you healthy and happy, all of you!</div>
<br />
<div>
Thanks</div>
<br />
<div>
Frank </div>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-43306201663242235932020-03-22T09:06:00.000-07:002020-03-22T09:06:25.637-07:00Lessons from a pandemic game<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
In May 2019, I was the lead umpire in a game about a
pandemic in the UK. The game was a committee game, largely free kriegsspiel.
The decisions made in the game reflected those being made in the current
situation in the world and are not that interesting. What is perhaps more
interesting were the wider decisions in the game. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Welsh government used the opportunity to get a better
settlement from the UK government, the Scottish declared independence in the
belief London could not retain control and Russia threatened the Baltic Republics;
intending to seize them while <span style="text-transform: uppercase;">nato</span>
nations were fully tasked with the pandemic.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of course, games are not predictive; wargamers use the shared
experience of the game to explore the potential.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, now we are in a real pandemic, the possibilities of
real world scheming in Cardiff, Edinburgh or Moscow are now looking less like some
wargame fantasy.</div>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-18759390002082393172020-03-13T12:58:00.000-07:002020-03-13T12:58:01.179-07:00Gaming the pandemic
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">One of the ways of creating a model of the decisions states
make facing a pandemic is using Confrontation Analysis- the Card game. This
views the potential choices as cards in the government hand which can be played
or not. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">For example, the government can play a card- “mobilise all
nursing students and direct them into hospitals to create a pool of reserve nurses!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The factors in this this situation are:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt 1cm;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Public confidence in government<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt 1cm;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Impact on economy<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt 1cm;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Impact on virus<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Each of these are rated +5 (best outcome possible) to -5
(terrible, very bad) 0 = a balance of good and bad. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The card would say “mobilise nursing students”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Public confidence + 2 (the public like the idea of
mobilising and fighting the pandemic)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Impact on economy -2 (they will expect to get paid like trained
nurses)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Impact on virus + 2 (it would help fight the virus)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">For this card, another factor is added- Universities -1 (as
they will lose money on the students not being students for a while, if
universities are paid for absent students add -1 on to impact on economy as well
as being paid, the universities are paid).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The pandemic has stages e.g. Contain, delay, pandemic, recovery.
Each stage may have a different score. These are listed in order. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">e.g. The card mobilise nursing students looks like this:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">public confidence -1\0\+1\+1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Impact on economy -1\-1\-1\-1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Impact on virus 0\+1\+2\+2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Special- Universities -1, if universities paid for absent
nurses score is 0 but extra -1 to impact on economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It does not take long to generate a whole series of cards
that can be used to inform a discussion about what choices governments have at each stage of the pandemic.</span></div>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-20533859466072070902019-11-20T12:15:00.002-08:002019-11-20T12:15:19.195-08:00Successful Professional Wargames: A practitioners handbookNew book published by the History of Wargaming Project. <a href="http://www.wargaming.co/professional/home.htm">link</a><br />
<br />
The back cover says:<br />
<br />
"<span style="font-family: Calibri;">You will benefit from this book if you are a practitioner of
the art of serious wargaming. Done well, the simple act of putting players in
an immersive environment, asking them to make decisions and then face the
consequences of those in a dynamically evolving narrative generates astounding
insights and internalises learning objectives. Yet, as Clausewitz said of war,
everything in wargaming is simple, but doing the simplest thing is difficult.
This book explains the seemingly simple. It is a detailed guide to designing
and delivering successful wargames, whether you apply the technique to Defence,
other government departments, business, the emergency services, academia or
humanitarian operations. This is important because good wargames save money
but, first and foremost, they save lives.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The author<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In his book, Graham Longley-Brown draws on his first-hand
experience and those of leading professionals around the world to tell the
story of wargaming best practices. From delving into the nature and
applicability of wargames (they’re not just for the military), to building the
best teams for producing and managing them, to articulating the life cycle of a
successful game, it is a story which will prove invaluable for professional
practitioners of wargames for both security and business.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Peter Perla, author of The Art of Wargaming<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This book offers a cornucopia of invaluable information and
ideas based on Graham Longley-Brown's decades of hands-on experience in
designing and running professional wargames. There are extensive contributions
from other experts, making the book a gold mine of insights from across the
global wargaming community. It is essential reading for anyone wishing to use
this increasingly prominent analytical and educational technique.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Professor Philip Sabin, author of Simulating War<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Soldiers take great pride in being physically fit. Sport
plays a major part in Army culture. But fighting power comprises three
components: physical; moral and conceptual. The physical component is important,
but the conceptual component is the decisive and campaign-winning
differentiator: in war, the winners are the thinkers, the rest are losers.
Wargaming is not only a directed element of the military planning process, but
it also provides a fitness training programme for the brain in which every
thinking Army officer should engage. Anyone involved in military thinking, or
indeed any form of tactical or strategic thinking, from government to business,
will derive huge benefit from Graham Longley-Brown’s excellent exploration and
explanation of the (often neglected) art of wargaming.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">General (Retired) Andrew Sharpe CBE</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z8ZHr1CfT3w/XdWekOwFx6I/AAAAAAAAAas/iLMbUeAoFnY0FzSN7FFoCsYlPr4DgFaqwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/cover%2Bmedium%2Bversion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="753" data-original-width="500" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z8ZHr1CfT3w/XdWekOwFx6I/AAAAAAAAAas/iLMbUeAoFnY0FzSN7FFoCsYlPr4DgFaqwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/cover%2Bmedium%2Bversion.jpg" width="212" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5380479836119202378.post-79764349001123417182019-11-03T03:30:00.000-08:002019-11-03T03:30:59.244-08:00David Rowland's The Stress of Battle: Quantifying HumanPerformance in Battle for Historical Analysis and Wargaming<table><tbody>
<tr><th class="auto-style1" colspan="5" style="width: 932px;"><span class="auto-style3">by<span lang="en-gb"> David Roland </span></span><br />
<span class="auto-style3"><span lang="en-gb">Editor:</span> <span class="auto-style3">John Curry</span></span></th></tr>
<tr><td class="auto-style1" colspan="5" style="width: 932px;"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">This is one of the classic works on historical analysis of combat by David Roland as part of his work in the Ministry of defence. It was widely recognised for its pioneering research on combat. </span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The book starts by summarising development of UK MoD historical analysis from studies in the 1970s. The development in the 1970s, of pulsed laser weapon simulators enabled real-time force-on-force exercises to be conducted and monitored. Analysis of these exercises, allowed advice to be given on more realistic combat modelling, and in particular human behaviour and reactions, underpinning operational effectiveness, force structures and equipment procurement studies.</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Using quantitative Historical Analysis (HA), it was possible to extend to comparisons between the levels of effectiveness between simulated and real combat and to establish basic combat degradation estimates, one weapon class at a time. The effects of suppression, surprise and shock, were also quantified. The result of this research shed new light on infantry combat, armour v anti-tank weapons and heroism on the battlefield. </span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The large number of diagrams make the analysis clear and although the book is based around statistics, no in-depth maths is needed to understanding the conclusions.</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The book has been published by the History of Wargaming Project as part of ongoing efforts to document the development of professional wargaming.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"></span> </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5YMfSa0bBtI/Xb66IXzuKCI/AAAAAAAAAag/tHl0i4VGdaIAMGNOISBputz-nUW7PdfGACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rolandstressofbattlecover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1059" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5YMfSa0bBtI/Xb66IXzuKCI/AAAAAAAAAag/tHl0i4VGdaIAMGNOISBputz-nUW7PdfGACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/rolandstressofbattlecover.gif" width="211" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"></span> </div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
John Curry Editor History of Wargaming Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03350363410688664287noreply@blogger.com1