Follow by Email

Sunday, 11 August 2019

Target Australia

Having gamed the full range of potential attacks on Australia, my key conclusion is: apparently no-one cares if a 3rd party supported by another 3rd party occupies Australia. I will, of course, assume that the Australians care, and New Zealand cares (as it cannot survive long term without Australian support). 

Australia is seen as of limited interest to most of the world. I will give an example, in 1967 their Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared without a trace. No-one outside Australia apparently even noticed. It has not improved since. A quick look at the BBC news pages shows the Australian coverage is usually at a fairly trivial level. 

On July 13th 2019 the respected Australian Strategic Policy Institute said “A new cold war will force changes in Australian behaviour” and “A new cold war with China is playing out in all but name. Australia will be at the front line…” This is serious stuff, but no-one outside Australia has picked up on the story. When I looked, Google found no reference to this story in English in Europe. This is clearly a political failure of Australia’s political leadership to connect with the Europe and North America.  

Australia has strategic importance; in a general war as a forward unsinkable base; in small wars or counterinsurgencies the Australians are very good allies in that sort of thing. However, I assume Australia is largely ignored for geographical reasons - it's so far down that bottom right hand corner on a standard world map used in the UK- and culturally I speculate that its main exports aren't seen as being as serious or impactful as those from the US, UK, or Europe. Of course these factors have nothing to do with its actual relevance, especially considering the nature of the political or cyber or economic "terrain" in a new Cold War will be completely separate from any physical considerations.

So, my conclusions from my game-based analysis are nothing to do with planes, tanks, subs, cyber or trade. The key strategic problem of Australis faces is engaging the Western World to support Australia in this new cold war. If it fails to do this, it is game over.


  1. That's an uncomfortable assessment!

    1. Games sometimes produce uncomfortable perspectives. Of course, I may be completely wrong and others will correct me!

    2. Interesting. Can I ask what new books are in the pipeline? Thanks!

    3. I have four books almost ready to publish. The first is by David Roland on using historical analysis, the second is a professional wargaming handbook by Graham Longley Brown, the third is compilation of the early Airfix Wargaming guides and the fourth is on cyber wargaming. I have 47 books in my immediate to do pile and every month more wargaming archeology reveals more fascinating stuff.

  2. 슈어맨 다음드 먹튀다자바 공통 추천 토토사이트 메이저사이트 안전놀이터 가장 완전하고 정확한 먹튀검증 3대사이트에서 공통으로 추천하고 있는 스포츠 배팅사이트라면 안전성이나 신속 정확성에서 타사이트에 비해 앞서 있습니다 토토파워가 이를 공개합니다

  3. Yes, if we let Them capture Australia, they will pile up all their armies there and "turtle" until they emerge and conquer the map in one fell swoop!